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Subproject 2
Past and future hydroclimate
· WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts
This WP aims to advance our understanding on the key processes that govern the climate natural low-frequency variability and trends over the past 150 years in La Plata Basin, to assess the impact of climate change on the natural climate variability for the 21st century and to determine the uncertainties involved with the projected hydro-climate changes on two time horizons: 2010-2040 and 2070-2100. The work on the 21st century will focus, a priori, on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario given that it has been extensively analysed in other European projects (ENSEMBLES) and that more climate models provide simulations for this scenario as compared to SRES A2 for instance. It will therefore help comparing and assessing the progress made between climate model generations.
Specific objectives
· To assess and quantify against data the skill of the IPCC coupled models (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings built for the Fourth Assessment Report) in simulating the slow (decadal to interdecadal) and rapid (less than 5-10 years) variations in the 20th century LPB hydro-climate, using objective statistical methodologies.
· To identify and evaluate against data the skill of the IPCC AR4 models in simulating the main modes of global natural variability for the 20th century and their teleconnections to the LPB hydroclimate (ENSO, SAMS, PDO, NAO, SAM, TAV), using both statistical and dynamical methodologies.
· To elucidate the physical processes that govern the slow and rapid variations in the 20th century LPB hydroclimate and to determine how they may be linked to SAMS and global ocean-atmosphere modes of variability.
· To quantify the IPCC AR4 inter-model uncertainties in projecting 21st century climate, to identify the possible links between 20th century biases in model results and 21st century evolutions, and to investigate the underlying mechanisms in the 21st century transient simulations with major focus on SRES scenario (A1B).
Partners involved in WP 4
CMCC, UFPR, CONICET, UR |
