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Subproject 4
Socio-economic scenarios and adaptation/prevention strategies

· WP9: Land use change, agriculture and socio-economic implications
The primary objective of this WP9 is to assess the impacts of Climate Change on the more sensitive aspects of the water resources of La Plata Basin to climate variations and to help to build the corresponding adaptation strategies. The horizon time will be 2010/2040 for adaptation strategies and 2070/2100 for assessment of long range impacts. This WP9 component will focus on important climate change issues that are not currently addressed by other international projects on the Plata Basin.

Specific objectives
· To compute an ensemble of hydrological scenarios based on the HBV (SMHI) and ORCHIDEE (CNRS) models forced by various 20th and 21st century large-scale and regional scale climate simulations provided by WP7 and based on models used in WP4 and WP5.

· To design statistical prediction schemes and hydrological scenarios forced by GHG increase and land use changes based on the knowledge of decadal variability of streamflow records in the region

· To suggest guidelines for the management of the Iberá wetlands ecosystems to stakeholders in order to preserve a region highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle.

· To recommend adaptation strategies (infrastructure) to face possible changes in the intensity and frequency of small regional floods of major impacts on society in the coming decades (2010-2040).

· To assess climate change effects on navigation and in the Paraná Delta front urbanization and recommend adaptation strategies

· To recommend operation strategy of the dams in the Brazilian South/South-East subsystem of La Plata Basin based on a set of future climate scenarios.

· To identify eventual vulnerabilities of the hydropower sector under climate change scenarios and quantify the possible need for other sources of energy.

Partners involved in WP 9
SMHI, UFPR, UBA, INA, CNRS, CESIRICERCA